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Figure 8. Locations of Katrina’s ccntcr of circulation as it moved across south Florida between 5 p.m. August 25 and 11 pm August 26. Courtesy of WFO Miami. Yellow boxes denote tropical storm strength and red denote hurricane.
The 4 p.m. EDT August 26 advisory issued by TPC/NHC shifted the track of Katrina about 150 nautical miles to the west into the north-central coast of the Gulf of Mexico. In the same advisory, TPC/NHC also indicated that Katrina would rcach Category 4 status. This forecast of aggressive strengthening was supported by three computer guidance models, which, when cited in the forecast discussion, provided increased confidence for the strengthening trend.
The final significant adjustment to the TPC/NHC forecast occurred in the 10 p.m. CDT, August 26 advisory, 56 hours before landfall. The track was adjusted farther west to project a landfall in southeast Louisiana and a second landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border, and the intensity forecast projected Katrina as a major hurricane until final landfall. The forecast discussion noted an above average level of confidcncc in the forecast.
At 11 a.m. EDT August 27, NHC issued a hurricane watch from Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River (Louisiana-Mississippi border), including metropolitan New Orleans. Later that afternoon, NHC extended the hurricane watch eastward across southern Mississippi to the Alabama-Florida border. On the night of August 27, TPC/NHC replaced the hurricane watch with a hurricane warning. During the next two days, only minor track adjustments were made. Meanwhile, the intensity forecast callcd for Katrina to be a major hurricane at landfall.
NHC introduced storm surge forecasts for southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi in the 11 p.m. EDT, August 27 forecasts 32 hours prior to Katrina's landfall in southeast Louisiana. The initial storm surge forecasts were 15 to 20 feet to locally as high as 25 feet. By 10 a.m. CDT, August 28, the storm surge values were increased to a
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